Still with the perspective of rains, coffee has new retraction in ICE
Arabica coffee futures traded on ICE Futures US closed this Thursday with a steady decline, albeit a steady decline. Throughout the working period, the December position remained below the benchmark of 130.00 cents per pound, not showing a higher buyer tone. The auction of this fifth was quite emptied, with several players positioning sideways. Only about 24,000 lots traded hands throughout the session. Technical activities are still on the agenda for coffee, with operators waiting for the rains to arrive at the Brazilian coffee belt. Many operators are already working with the prospect that the resumption of rainfall in the Brazilian coffee regions would already be properly priced and that the continuity of terminal losses would also be the result of graphical weakness, since the market has not been successful in breaking the less the most basic resistances. The Brazilian physical market had a full day locked, with sellers and buyers continuing to diverge considerably in the volumes ordered for the acquisition and the sale, respectively. On this farm, the price idea for good coffees in the south of Minas Gerais was 460 reais.
At the close of the day in New York, the December position depreciated by 85 points, at 128.50 cents per pound, with a maximum of 129.70 cents and a low of 127.50 cents, with March registering a swing negative of 85 points, with 132.10 cents, with the maximum of 133.15 cents and the minimum of 131.10 cents per pound. On Euronext / Liffe, for robust grains, November fell by US $ 1, with US $ 1,949 per tonne, with a devaluation of US $ 3 at US $ 1,928 per tonne.
According to international analysts, the day was marked by new sales triggers, further pressing the terminal. If a few days ago the December flirted with levels above 140.00 cents, now lives around with the lack of strength to seek the basic level of 130.00 cents. This new pressure on the terminal is still tied to the question of the possible arrival of rains in the coffee belt of Brazil. Expected long ago, precipitation will at least minimize the water stress of the soil and ensure the opening of more vigorous flowering. Some of the analysts have evaluated that the rains are being read by the players as the finalization of the problems for the crops, which would be stimulating the liquidations. Many experts, however, are already working with the prospect that drought should be reflected in the 2018 harvest. The opening of the farm in New York took place on a small scale, but purchases were again very limited. The maximum was not more than 129.70 cents and quickly sellers became more eloquent. The minimum hit was 127.50 cents. In the external segment, the day was close to stability for the stock exchanges in the United States, with commodities softs taking advancement to cotton and sugar and retraction to cocoa, orange juice and coffee.
"We are again operating on a technical basis, although a good part of the recent sales are somewhat related to the climatic issue in Brazil." The new Commerzbank report pointed out that the trend is for coffee prices to improve. The bank works with the prospect of the pound going to a level close to 145.00 cents in the first quarter of next year.This would be related to the perspective of production deficit and also to the problems that should be registered in Brazil due to the current drought "a trader says.
The new forecast of Climatempo on Thursday for the next six days shows an increase in the accumulated rainfall in South of Minas, Mogiana, West of São Paulo and Zona da Mata, from September 29 to October 04. The highest rainfall will be in the region of Mogiana reaching 100 millimeters. In the South of Minas and the West of São Paulo the accumulated can reach 90 millimeters. In the north of Paraná to 85 millimeters, Triângulo Mineiro and Cerrado 65 mm. Zona da Mata at 40 millimeters and south of Espírito Santo at 10 millimeters.
According to information from the Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafé), in September, until the 26th, 1,515,288 bags of coffee were shipped, a daily average of 58,280 bags, up 32.5% from 1,143,325 bags shipped to the month of August. Of this total, 1,385,059 bags were of arabica, 17,753 bags of conillon and 112,476 bags soluble.
Certified coffee stocks at ICE Futures US were up 804 bags with 1,806,221 bags.
Technically, the December at ICE Futures US has resistance at 129.70, 130.00, 130.50, 131.00, 131.50, 132.00, 132.15, 132.50, 133.00, 133.50 , 133.65-133.70, 134.00, 134.45-134.50 and 135.00 cents per pound weight, supported at 127.50, 127.00, 126.50, 126.00 , 125.50, 125.00, 124.50, 124.00, 123.50, 123.00, 122.50, 122.00 and 121.50 cents per pound.
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